ANALYSIS: Handicapping the pace is key to winning big at Breeders’ Cup
Horseplayers throughout the world have been anticipating this weekend for a long time. Many, like myself, thought the Breeders’ Cup was in jeopardy because of the global pandemic. Yet, track officials at Keeneland Racecourse found a way to host the event without spectators. Of course, many were upset with the decision not to have spectators but understood the circumstances. That is until the entries and post positions were released. Horseplayers saw the opportunity to make some cash and just like that, all was forgotten. This is why in today’s analysis we will be looking at how properly handicapping the pace of the race can get a savvy horseplayer ahead of the game.
As a disclaimer, yes, some horseplayers will argue the merits of handicapping the pace. These horseplayers might opt to use speed figures. Honestly, it is easy to understand why. A lot of gamblers have based their handicapping on speed figures for ages but the figures do not tell the whole story, especially in these highly competitive races at the Breeders’ Cup.
Yes, there might be what some horseplayers would call an “unbeatable” horse in the field, like this year’s Juvenile, but if those horses do not get the proper setup, they are not guaranteed to run away with the race like their speed figures might suggest.
Why? Let’s look at it this way, the old saying for horseplayers is “pace makes a race”. For sure, there can be a speedy horse that loves to go the front, but what if another horse follows him there and they both set a blisteringly fast pace for the first quarter of a mile? Usually, unless those horses are well-oiled machines, the early speed horses are not going to make it to the winner’s circle.
Again, why is this the case? Let me explain. The two “early speed horses” usually tire themselves out dueling for the lead throughout the first half of the race. That sets it up for a late moving horse to come off the pace to steal the contest at the eighth pole. Yes, on paper that speedy horse looks like he can run away with the race. Although, in actuality, he could romp the field if he gets a slow pace.
How does a slow pace favour a speedy horse? If he can get the front to himself without being challenged, set the fractions to his liking, and save some energy for the stretch run, the race should be his for the taking.
A slow pace is where speed kills.
The horses that like to run late are bunched up for most of the race and worn out by the time they pass the eighth pole. They cannot really give much more than what they are already giving. On the other hand, that speed horse could hypothetically run for another mile, which is why such a horse will win by open lengths.
How can this factor into some of the Breeders’ Cup races? Look, most of these fields are highly competitive. The favourites are beatable and the longer prices on the tote board have a puncher’s chance at winning because they might get some pace relief.
Today, we will be using Equibase’s Pace Figures to handicap the $2 million TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. You can find the free Equibase PPs for both days of the Breeder’s Cup here. Please feel free to follow along with the PPs as I apply these pace theories to a real-life scenario.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for two-year-old colts and geldings at 1 1/16 miles
The first race I want to take a look at is the Juvenile. The 7–5 morning line favourite Jackie’s Warrior is a much deserving chalk. The two-year-old son of Maclean’s Music’s first four races of his career have been nothing less than stellar. His eye-catching victories in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special at Saratoga Racecourse and Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park prove why he is the early favorite to win next year’s Kentucky Derby.
His Equibase Speed Figures back up what the eye can see. In his latest victory in the Champagne Stakes, he earned a rather impressive 102 speed figure. He also earned the same speed figure in the Saratoga Special. The two-year-old’s other figures were both 95s in his first race where he broke his maiden and the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes which was also raced at Saratoga Racecourse.
One thing that should be noted is Saratoga Racecourse and Belmont Park historically favour speed. In all of Jackie’s Warrior’s races, he has been near the front or on the lead. His pace figures drive that point home. Looking at Jackie’s Warrior’s first four races chronologically, his pace figures have been 79, 101, 79, 80. They are not blazing fast pace figures, but they do show us that Jackie’s Warrior needs to be on the front and set a fair pace. He has yet to be seriously challenged. That might change in the Juvenile.
The 15–1 Likeable is going to want to be on the front, and so too is the 15–1 Next.
Likeable’s jockey John Valazquez is known to be aggressive with horses that have early speed. For example, in this year’s Kentucky Derby, he piloted Authentic to the front from a wide post position and controlled the race. I cannot see why he would not try to do that with Likeable. His pace figures for his two career starts are 84 and 86. That is good enough to say he is going to be on the front. The only pace figures that can beat his are the favourite’s and Next’s.
Gerardo Corrales, Next’s jockey, will probably be instructed by the horse’s trainer Wesley Ward to go fast and if he feels the pace set up is right, challenge the pacesetter. These connections are not afraid to be aggressive, especially when it has paid off in the past for them.
With all that being said, Keeneland Racecourse is a fair track, meaning there is not a clear historical track bias. Furthermore, in the Juvenile, there are some pretty solid closers.
The one that catches my eye is Dale Romans’ horse Sittin On Go. He won both races in his two-year-old campaign coming off the pace, including his hard-fought victory in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs earlier in the fall.
What was most impressive about Sittin On Go’s victory in the Iroquois is how he reeled in the field in the final furlough. His jockey Corey Lanerie asked him to go and that was it. He swallowed up the leader like it was nothing and won the race by open lengths.
The thing with these two-year-old horses is they usually keep getting better each time out. Who is to say Sittin On Go cannot earn a triple-digit speed figure? He ran a solid 95 speed figure in the Iroquois, which is 15 better than the 80 Equibase Speed Figure that he ran when he broke his maiden in the summer, and he looks to improve off that effort.
Sittin On Go’s numbers can compete with the favourite’s. Jackie’s Warrior is going to have some horses with him at the front. Those horses will most likely wear Jackie’s Warrior out a bit and force Joel Rosario to tip his hand in the early going of the race. In big races like the Juvenile, that is stressful. Not to mention, some horseplayers might argue that Rosario has made some mistakes on speed horses like Jackie’s Warrior in the past. A point in case, Rosario’s ride on Venetian Harbor in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga Racecourse. Rosario’s critics would argue, pardon the pun, that he did not test John Valazquez and Gamine as they were rounding the far turn. Consequently, that allowed Gamine to get the lead and never look back.
Factor in Sittin On Go’s solid workouts leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, there is a lot of value there, especially with his 12–1 morning line and the theoretical pace situation for the Juvenile.
Let us not forget horses like Reinvestment Risk and Essential Quality that like coming off the pace. They are set up nicely as well. Mind you, with much shorter prices. Reinvestment Risk is listed at 9–2 and that will probably shrink once people see that he finished second place to Jackie’s Warrior twice in his last two starts. Essential Quality is 4–1 but with his track record and his connections, the betting public will most likely make him 9/5 or 2/1 by post time. That is all fine and dandy, but if you are going to go with the fast pace angle, you have options for bigger prices.
Honestly, the Juvenile is a lot closer in terms of talent and skill than the odds might make it seem. You can make an argument for most of the horses in this race. If everything goes Jackie’s Warrior’s way, he could easily win the race. Although, the pace scenario does not play out in his favour. Switch some of those variables up and other horses that might look like they are at a disadvantage are actually in a much better spot. Some might say horses like Sittin On Go are right where they want to be. These longer distance races tend to favour the closer when there are multiple horses with early speed.
Of course, that is no fault of the morning line oddsmaker. He or she must make morning line odds that will reflect what the market will do come post time. Jackie’s Warrior is hands down the class of the race. If the oddsmaker does not give him a 7–5 morning line, that will get the public asking questions and create a sticky situation that could hurt the market. Yet, if the oddsmaker does his or her job, the onus is on the horseplayers to look at all the variables in play and make an educated decision on how to bet the race.
In this type of race, a horseplayer’s handicapping skills are of the utmost importance. His or her handicapping skills are the difference between winning and losing and beating the bookies.
So when handicapping this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup races, just remember that pace makes the race. Figure out the setup.
You can follow Christian on Twitter @HolmesyWrites
