Holmesy’s 2018 Breeders’ Cup Cheat Sheet
Mr. Holmes’ race notes for day one of the Breeders’ Cup.
Its that time of year again. The leaves are falling, the temperatures is dropping and every day the floor needs a good mopping. With the change in weather, means the end of a season and the start of a new one. But before we close the books on a unforgettable 2018, we must weather its eventful climax.
This weekend Churchill Downs in south Louisville, Kentucky, will play host to the 2018 Breeders’ Cup, the two biggest days in horse racing. After battling to be a part of the Breeders’ Cup, the world’s best-thoroughbred horses come to compete for glory as their jockeys and trainers look to find their relevance. Each race will carry a purse of at least $1 million USD. The stakes can’t get any higher and that’s what makes this weekend of racing so special.
Although the reigning Triple Crown winner Justify will not be racing, for he is retired, there is still plenty of can’t-miss thoroughbred talent, which will make for some great races and even better paydays for bettors.
Oh, I don’t even know any of the horses! There’s no way I can bet this!
As the studs look to separate themselves from the duds, we here at Holmesy’s Fightin’ Words look to give you casual fans and newbies a cheat sheet to get you into the winner's circle.
DISCLAIMER: Betting horses is a tough business. Anything and everything can happen in a race that can throw all betting methodology out the window. Therefore, we can not “guarantee” you winning bets, but what we can do is help inform the betting cactus on the horses in the race to encourage better betting.
Where do we start?
The weekend’s stakes races will start at 3:21 PM EST on Friday and will continue through Saturday. Saturday’s action will conclude with the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 5:44 PM, which is basically the granddaddy of them all. Showcasing the best of the best-thoroughbred horses.
Below will be the rundown on Friday’s races. Who’s good, who’s not, and who Holmesy likes. Now Mr. Holmes ain’t no Eddie Olczyk, but he seems to know what he’s talking about and according to him, it’s time to “giddy up”.
Keep it tuned to Holmesy’s Fightin’ Words for your Saturday race notes.
Are you ready?
Let’s break-it-down
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
5 1/2 Furlongs on turf for 2-year-olds
Post Time: 3:21 p.m. Friday
Purse: $1 million
Post position — Horse Name (Trainer) — Morning-line odds
1. Strike Silver (Mark Casse), 4–1
2. Soldier’s Call (GB) (Archie Watson), 9–2
3. Well Done Fox (GB) (Richard Hannon), 12–1
4. Stillwater Cove (Wesley Ward), 20–1
5. Bulletin (Todd Pletcher), 10–1
6. Moonlight Romance (Wesley Ward), 12–1
7. Shang Shang Shang (Wesley Ward), 5–1
8. Sergei Prokofiev (Aidan O’Brien), 6–1
9. Chelsea Cloisters (Wesley Ward), 8–1
10. So Perfect (Aidan O’Brien), 12–1
11. Queen of Bermuda (IRE) (William John Haggas), 20–1
12. Pocket Dynamo (Robert Cowell), 20–1
13. Big Drink of Water (Larry Rivelli), 30-1
14. Comedy (IRE) (Karl Burke), 30–1
15. Van Beethoven (Aidan O’Brien), 30–1
16. Legends of War (John Gosden), 30–1
Race notes: Strike Silver and Soldier’s Call are the favourites heading into Friday and rightfully so. Strike Silver had himself a strong run late in the Indian Summer Stakes. Placing last for most of the race, he really showcased his speed and took the lead down the final stretch.
Solder’s Call also has a good vibe to him. In the only race of his career, he managed to outlast the pack and take home the victory. I’m anxious to see how well he’ll fair at Churchill Downs. Nevertheless, I would not hesitate to put him in my trifecta bets. If I had some money to spare, I would probably do a win-place bet for Solder’s Call.
Another horse to keep your eye on is Bulletin. Trained by the great Todd Fletcher, the 10–1 Bulletin could make a late push in the race. He just needs to get off to a good start. That’ll be his key to success. With Javier Castellano riding the colt and his decent pole position, I feel comfortable putting $10 dollars on him to win.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
1 mile on turf for 2-year-old fillies
Post time: 4 p.m. Friday
Purse: $1 million
1. Concrete Rose, George Arnold, 6–1
2. The Mackem Bullet (IRE), Brian Ellison, 15–1
3. Lily’s Candle (FR), Fabrice Vermeulen, 8–1
4. Just Wonderful, Aidan O’Brien, 6–1
5. La Pelosa (IRE), Charlie Appleby, 15–1
6. Newspaperofrecord (IRE), Chad Brown, 2–1
7. Stellar Agent, Jorge Abreu, 30–1
8. Belle Laura, Norm Casse, 20–1
9. Varenka, Graham Motion, 20–1
10. Pakhet, Todd Pletcher, 12–1
11. Lady Prancealot (IRE), Richard Baltas, 30–1
12. Summering, Thomas Proctor, 15–1
13. My Gal Betty, Roger Attfield, 20–1
14. East (GB), Kevin Ryan, 20–1
15. Pivottina (FR), Graham Motion, 30–1
16. Winning Envelope, Chris Block, 30–1
Race notes: I’m not going to lie, this is Newspaperofrecord race to win. With her wire-to-wire win at Belmont, it would not come as a shock if she had another wire-to-wire showing. Concrete Rose and Just Wonderful are the only fillies I legitimately see giving Newspaperofrecord a hard time.
The Breeders’ Cup Tito’s Handmade Vodka Juvenile Fillies
1 1/16 mile on dirt for 2-year-old fillies
Post Time: 4:40 p.m. Friday
Purse: $2 million
1. Reflect (Keith Desormeaux) — 15–1
2. Serengeti Empress (Thomas Amoss) — 7–2
3. Vibrance (Michael McCarthy) — 10–1
4. Restless Rider (Kenneth McPeek) — 9–2
5. Cassies Dreamer (Barclay Tagg) — 30–1
6. Baby Nina (Anthony Quartarolo) — 30–1
7. Jaywalk (John Servis) — 7–2
8. Sippican Harbor (Gary Contessa) — 12–1
9. Splashy Kisses (Doug O’Neill) — 20–1
10. Bellafina (Simon Callaghan) — 2–1
Race notes: Bellafina is definitely the horse to beat in this race. In her previous races, she handled the turf well. She’s not a ‘for sure’ bet but she brings a lot to the table. She fast and can maintain her strides.
Serengeti Empress and Jaywalk could very well push for the win in the final stretch. They definitely have the speed too. The only thing is I do not believe they have the pedigree of Bellafina. Not to say they can’t beat her, they just need a lot of things to go right.
One horse that I do think can shock some people is Reflect. She’s nothing special but has the grittiness other fillies in the field lack. She might be worth risking $10 dollars on.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
1 mile on turf for 2-year-old colts and geldings
Purse: $1 million
Post time: 5:22 p.m. Friday.
1. Arthur Kitt (GB), Tom Dascombe, 20–1
2. Uncle Benny, Jason Servis, 15–1
3. Much Better, Bob Baffert, 10–1
4. Forty Under, Jeremiah Englehart, 5–1
5. Line of Duty (IRE), Charlie Appleby, 10–1
6. Henley’s Joy, Mike Maker, 8–1
7. Somelikeithotbrown, Mike Maker, 12–1
8. Opry, Todd Pletcher, 15–1
9. The Black Album (FR), Jane Soubagne, 30–1
10. War of Will, Mark Casse, 12–1
11. King of Speed, Jeffrey Bonde, 8–1
12. Current, Todd Pletcher, 5–1
13. Marie’s Diamond (IRE), Mark Steven Johnston, 20–1
14. Anthony Van Dyck (IRE), Aidan O’Brien, 4–1
15. Tracksmith, Joe Sharp, 30–1
16. Order and Law, Louis Linder Jr., 30–1
Race notes: Bettors are placing most of their money on Anthony Van Dyck and Current. I will not lie, I have not seen AVD race much, but from the information I have gathered, the horse can push for a first-place finish. So can Current. The key is how long these horses can last. Forty Under will be sure to push the pace early and very well could win wire-to-wire. I really don’t see any of the other long shots coming into play. This is what I would call a “three horse race”.
Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
1 1/16 mile on dirt for 2-year-old colts and geldings
Post Time: 6:05 p.m. Friday
Purse: $2 million
1. Dueling (Jerry Hollendorfer) — 20–1
2. Mr. Money (Bret Calhoun) — 30–1
3. Derby Date (D. Wayne Lukas) — 30–1
4. Tight Ten (Steven Asmussen) — 30–1
5. Well Defined (Kathleen O’Connell) — 20–1
6. Complexity (Chad Brown) — 5–2
7. Mind Control (Gregory Sacco) — 20–1
8. Standard Deviation (Chad Brown) — 12–1
9. Game Winner (Bob Baffert) — 8–5
10. Knicks Go (Ben Colebrook) — 30–1
11. Code of Honor (Claude McGaughey) — 5–1
12. Gunmetal Gray (Jerry Hollendorfer) — 10–1
13. Topper T (William Mott) — 30–1
14. Signalman (Kenneth McPeek) — 20–1
Race notes: Bob Baffert only likes to put winners into these big Breeders’ Cup races. Game Winner looks to be another example. In the American Pharaoh Stakes, the colt went for a good run and took the lead at the start of the final stretch. Game Winner will have to keep an eye out for Complexity, a horse some feel can be the next Kentucky Derby winner.
Complexity was a wire-to-wire winner in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont. He never seemed to lose his pace. Theoretically speaking, he very well could be the late money favourite heading into Friday’s race. I mean people are already saying he could be next year’s Kentucky Derby winner, which is big praise for a 2-year-old. It’s safe to say there’s a lot of optimism surrounding this horse.
Also, be sure to keep an eye out for Code of Honor as he will look to be in it too. He managed to finish second in the Champagne behind Complexity after a stumble at the break.
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